Ticker Testing
The Peter Wickham poll
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- Parent Category: Jan 2012
- Category: Week end Jan 21st, 2012
- Published on Sunday, 22 January 2012 16:19
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Cost of living and unemployment are the two most burning issues on the minds of Grenadians at the moment. This is the conclusion of a poll conducted on the island in November by well-known Barbadian pollster, Peter Wickham.
Speculation is rife that the poll was funded by a faction of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) that is allegedly behind a move for Tourism Minister, Peter David to take over the leadership of the party from Prime Minister, Tillman Thomas.
A copy of the poll obtained by THE NEW TODAY newspaper indicated that 42 percent of the persons interviewed put Cost of Living as their top priority, with Employment opportunities taking second place on 29 percent, followed by the State of the economy.
Issues such as National Leadership, Crime, Security and Drugs, Housing, Cabine Reshuffles, Corruption and Casino Gambling were not things that pre-occupied the minds of Grenadians. Prime Minister Thomas has already stated publicly that NDC as a group did not commission the poll.
In a release issued, the Prime Minister said while he has heard that a poll was done, “as the political leader of the NDC, I, my management committee nor the party’s executive requested, commissioned or paid for any poll. As a result the Grenadian leader said he is unable to comment on the “contents, conclusions and authenticity of any such poll.”
Prime Minister Thomas said he believes the surfacing of an alleged poll at this time is “political mischief” designed to distract from his government’s performance in office. “I see this as political mischief and another attempt to take our attention away from building our country,” he remarked.
“Our policies have resulted in a turn-around in the national economy with signs of growth in the first half of 2011. In 2012 we will continue to implement our two-year plan that we announced in September. We are working to put people back to work and improve the conditions for all our people. That is our priority and that’s our focus,” the Prime Minister continued.
As a public service, THE NEW TODAY reproduces in full the conclusions arrived at by the pollster.
“The analysis that follows is presented in light of a serious fissure that appears to have presented itself in the NDC and as such this organisation is seeking guidance regarding the best way forward and some indication of what political consequences would follow an early general election. It is perhaps best that this analysis proceed on the basis of a situation analysis that is rooted in the 2008 election in which the NDC recorded 51% of the total votes cast which was a 5.8% swing or improvement on its performance in the previous electoral excursion.
Currently CADRES is predicting a negative swing away from the NDC to the extent 2% which would theoretically put the NDC in opposition (mutatis mutandis) and has indentified four seats that are likely to succumb to the NNP in the context of this swing pattern.
This negative moment is likely to have been caused by a combination of major international economic crises that have impacted especially on the employment situation, but also the local political instability would be a factor as well. In the survey Grenadians indentified cost of living and economic issues as major irritants but a majority also expresses the view that Grenada was heading in the wrong direction at this time.
The effort to identify other factors that have caused this slippage would naturally also lead to the examination of the NDP’s (NDC’s) leadership which appears to be less than inspiring and while there is not considerable excitement regarding the leadership of the NNP, the fact that the NDC is governing in some difficult times makes the NDC’S Leadership issues more critical.
It would be untrue to say that Grenadians have major problems with the NDC or its leadership; however it would also be untrue to say that Grenadians believe that the NDC has performed well.Instead the poll suggests that the NDC is simply existing while the political and economic conditions require something slightly more vigorous than “inertia”. Consistent with this analysis the data on PM Thomas suggests that he seems to be “OK” while Grenadians presently wish to be inspired and this is not happening.
It is therefore clear that if the NDC were to face election currently it would need to reverse the current situation and moreover grow its support and here also it is critical to look back over the more recent development of the NDC.
The analysis of the 2008 election reveals that the NDC’s party swing was 5.8% while the NNP was 0.4% which essentially means that although the NNP lost, both parties grew their support and this is not difficult to understand in Grenada since it has recently been witnessing the collapse of a complex-multi-party system and setting into a two-party system (NDC-NNP).
The NDP (NDC) benefitted from more of this growth in the last election which means that it is the party that is more attractive to persons who are NOT NNP Hardliners at this time in Grenada’s political development.
This is good and bad since it means that the NDC is attractive to new voters, but it also means that the NDC’s support will for the time being be ‘tentative”. Suffice to say the NDP (NDC) cannot be “existing” at this stage. Instead it badly needs to solidify and grow its support by targeting the “Uncertain Voters “indentified in this document and the few remaining supporters of smaller political parties.
Perhaps the most instructive aspect of this survey are the questions relating which suggest that Grenadians are not happy with either option for leadership at present and moreover that nationally, among party supporters and “Uncertain voters” there is a greater inclination to support both parties if the leaders were changed.
This naturally creates an advantage for whichever party is able to achieve that objective first and it is reasonable to assume that the net gain would potentially be greater than the 2% needed to mitigate the current national swing.
Specifically 24% of “Uncertain Voters” have indicated that they would be more likely to vote for both the NDC and NNP if either of them changed leaders.
The appreciation of “political needs” is one matter; however the achievement of these is another and in this regard CADRES is paying close attention to the political party known as the NDC and the fact 21% of its supporters identify themselves as “Hardliners’ who can be relied upon to support the party in an election regardless of who is leader.
These persons would be unaffected by a potentially “bloody” battle and can be relied upon to support the winner”, so long as that person can demonstrate that they represent the true “grass roots” NDC. Then there is the “NDC leaning” group which is likely to be affected by any ensuing battle and could potentially defect to the NNP which has always appeared more stable.
Certainly this group appears to be the most volatile group in the entire scenario and could easily cost the NDC the election.The final group to be considered is the “Uncertain Voters” which amount to 34% based on the self identification model used and this group appears more partial to a named alternative leader within the NDC.
Several questions therefore arise that the NDP needs to ask itself three questions:
*Can an alternative leader negotiate his way to the helm of the NDC?
*If that leader has to fight his way to the top, can he maintain the grass roots support of the party along that journey and moreover can he demonstrate that he is the embodiment of the true NDC values and principles? *In making a decision to go into “political battle” is the potential NDC leader more concerned about retaining 10% of “NDC Leaning” support that appears partial to the status quo or is it better to pursue the 34% uncommitted voters which could potentially deliver new seats to the NDC.
CADRES believe that all major political decisions can be made against this background and to this end the data contained therein should be helpful.
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