NNP expected poll loss in 2008
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- Parent Category: Nov 2011
- Category: Week ending Nov 19th, 2011
- Published on Sunday, 20 November 2011 00:52
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Former Grenada Prime Minister, Dr. Keith Mitchell confided in U.S officials that the 2008 loss by his party in the polls to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) was not unexpected.
Mitchell’s position on the 11-4 loss of the New National Party (NNP) is contained in classified wikileaks documents, which involved a series of reports filed by U.S diplomats around the world.
In an “unclassified” document obtained by the NEW TODAY, the former Prime Minister told an American diplomat shortly after the 2008 polls that “the NNP loss was not completely unexpected” because polls conducted prior to the election “showed 9-10% undecided, so he knew the party might lose power”.
He also said that Jamaica’s Prime Minister Bruce Golding told him it in addition, he told the American envoy that the new Grenadian Government of Prime Minister Tillman Thomas made many promises during the campaign that it may find hard to fulfill.
Following is the full text of the content of the wikileaks documents filed after the elections:
2008-09-22 18:19
2011-08-30 01:44
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Bridgetown
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR’S FIRST CALL ON NEW GRENADA GOVT
SUMMARY — The Ambassador and Grenada Charge met August 15 with newly elected Grenadian Prime Minister Tillman Thomas, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Peter David, and Opposition Leader, Keith Mitchell in separate meetings.
Thomas’ National Democratic Congress (NDC) beat out Mitchell’s New National Party (NNP) by a narrow margin in the July 8 election to take 11 seats in the lower house of Parliament.
A reserved Thomas expressed optimism over the future of a newly proposed economic and political integration plan being pushed by Trinidad PM Manning and St. Vincent PM Gonsalves, but admitted the plan lacks detail.
Mitchell, meanwhile, seemed to take impish delight in his new freedom to start making political life difficult for the new government.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS IN POWER
The Ambassador congratulated Prime Minister Tillman Thomas and Minister for Foreign Affairs (MFA) Peter David for winning re-election and for winning a majority after spending many years in opposition.
Both men described governing as a new challenge. Both thanked the United States for its ongoing assistance and especially for the hurricane recovery assistance provided after Hurricane Ivan devastated the country in 2004.
The Ambassador informed the Grenadians that the U.S. Government provided an additional US$50,000 to the Organisation of American States (OAS) for the Grenada election observer mission (EOM). This enabled the OAS to expand the number of observers.
Five volunteer observers from Embassy Bridgetown also participated.
The National Democratic Congress (NDC) was pleased that nearly 30 observers had been able to participate and thereby minimise fears of potential fraud.
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
David and Thomas spoke enthusiastically about their August 13-14 trip to Trinidad. Thomas, David, and Minister for Finance Nazim Burke had traveled to Port of Spain together August 13-14 on a jet provided by Trinidad’s PM Manning.
The purpose of the trip was twofold: to meet officially with Prime Minister Manning and to discuss moving forward on regional integration with other Eastern Caribbean government representatives and CARICOM officials.
According to Thomas, St. Vincent Prime Minister Gonsalves and PM Manning, long-time supporters of regional integration, were worried about the lack of progress on CARICOM’s planned economic integration. CARICOM experts have been similarly pessimistic.
Jamaica’s current government is not committed to the process, according to Thomas, while a number of countries appear reluctant to give up sovereignty so soon after achieving independence. They agreed with the Ambassador that the diversity among the Caribbean countries over levels of development adds to the challenge.
While CARICOM integration may be stalled, David said Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States’ (OECS) integration is well on its way. With OECS economic union on track for 2009, Thomas said the assembled leaders discussed expanding the agenda to include Trinidad in a broader economic integration plan to be completed by 2011, and “some form of political integration” by 2013.
Trinidad wants to play a role in an integrated OECS, Thomas noted. David remarked that “many” want Trinidad involved, as long as no other agreements are violated.
Thomas noted that Trinidad and Grenada had explored integration as early as 1962, though nothing came of it. There is a long history of movement between the two countries with many Grenadians resident in Trinidad and vice versa.
Trinidadians have invested heavily in Grenada over the last twenty to thirty years.
Also discussed in Trinidad was how to resolve the maritime boundary disputes Grenada has with Trinidad and Venezuela.
Thomas told the Ambassador that his government is eager to drill for oil and gas, but no company will consider operating off Grenada’s islands until the boundary disputes are resolved.
A bi-national commission is being set up to resolve the dispute with Trinidad.
(NOTE: Thomas’ NDC government is a latecomer to the pursuit of offshore drilling. Prior to their election, the NDC had been harshly critical of the previous government’s attempts to promote the search for gas and oil (which admittedly included at least one known charlatan in the mix with genuine investors like PetroCanada.
TOURISM AND INVESTMENT
Thomas and David mentioned that lack of airlift continues to hamper plans for expansion of Grenada’s tourism industry and efforts to attract foreign investment.
Grenada is interested in promoting regional competition for LIAT, which drove out its only competitor on intra-island routes, Caribbean Star, in 2007.
The GOG wants Caribbean Airlines to fly to Grenada, but political support for LIAT among other OECS countries (with St. Vincent PM Gonsalves the loudest voice) is making that option difficult.
The previous government negotiated an agreement with American Airlines for new airlift that will begin in November 2008. It is not clear yet whether the daily American Eagle flights to San Juan will continue if the American Airlines jets start flying.
If American Eagle drops out, or reduces its flights, there would be a net loss in the number of flights from Grenada to the United States.
The Ambassador asked about investment in Grenada, noting the tremendous contributions made to the local community by St. George’s University Chancellor Charles Modica over the last 30 years as well as recent large investments by investors such as British developer Peter DeSavery.
Grenada is a beautiful country, offers great opportunities for investors, and is perfectly situated for visits to the Grenadines, she noted.
David responded that the newly elected government wants Grenada’s tourism industry to become an engine of growth for the country.
Several Barbadian investors are working on a Four Seasons hotel in St. George’s; Grenadian-descent race car driver Louis Hamilton has purchased the Grenada Grand Beach Property; there is talk that Hilton is interested; and investors from New York and New Jersey are developing a Bacolet Bay property.
Grenada is feeling the pinch of the world-wide economic downturn, said David. Economic downturns are cyclical, the Ambassador noted, and by moving ahead now Grenada will position itself to take advantage when the economy improves.
The new NDC government plans to institute a long-planned streamlining in the process required to invest in the country.
The Ambassador commented that a USAID program in Antigua helped create a “one-stop-shop” for investors, which has been quite successful.
David pointed out that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) complained that there are too many concessions to see a regional approach to concessions so that poorer countries are not disadvantaged.
SECURITY
Grenada remains concerned about its lack of an effective coast guard in light of the increase regionally in drug flows and violence.
The Ambassador reminded her interlocutors that Grenada’s coast guard remains weak on the personnel side. She added that the previous government identified the same concerns to us.
U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) held meetings in March and June with regional leaders to identify security needs, but we are still waiting on the region to provide additional detail on their priority needs.
The U.S., she said, looks forward to hearing more specifics in the weeks ahead.
OPPOSITION LEADER
The Ambassador congratulated former PM Keith Mitchell on winning his seat, noting that he looked very relaxed.
Mitchell laughed as he pointed out that he had had thirteen years in government - five more than a U.S. president’s potential eight years. He said he is in better shape and less stressed out than he has been in a long time. He has been able to reconnect with his community as he now has time to walk around and visit with his neighbors.
Mitchell said he tells his supporters to remember that in a democracy “you are in sometimes and out sometimes”. It may be time to pass things on to a younger group of politicians.
The Ambassador commended the progress Grenada made in recovering from Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Emily (2005).
Mitchell noted that the country emerged with fewer resources and more challenges in a less than ideal international economic climate.
He added that Jamaica’s Prime Minister Bruce Golding told him it was a bad time to be in charge of a government. The new Grenadian government made many promises during the campaign that it may find hard to fulfill.
Mitchell admitted the NNP loss was not completely unexpected. Polling going into the election showed 9-10% undecided, so he knew the party might lose power.
However, he assured the Ambassador that he would continue to work to keep the country calm. Mitchell accused the new government of behaving badly, adding that Grenada needs a better transition period, closer to the U.S. model.
COMMENT
It is evident that the newly elected NDC government wants to continue the good working relationship previous post-revolutionary governments have had with the United States. This includes ministers who, during the 1979-1983 revolutionary period, were vocally anti-U.S.
Whether it is because they have mellowed over the years, genuinely changed their political leanings, or simply see that antagonizing the U.S. would be counterproductive, the NDC government appears to be ready to work with us in all areas of concern, including counter terrorism and counter narcotics.
The contrast between former Prime Minister Mitchell and current Prime Minister Tillman Thomas could not have been starker.
Mitchell, gregarious and knowledgeable, expounded on the election outcome, U.S. politics, the international economic situation, and his passport problems.
Thomas, by contrast, is extremely shy and not comfortable making small talk. In a region where political leaders are known for their communication skills, Thomas is an unlikely Prime Minister, who owes his election to his reputation for honesty and hard work.
Minister for Foreign Affairs and Tourism Peter David, by contrast, is charming and volatile. One of his favored modes of campaigning is to pop in and “shoot the breeze” in the rum shops of his constituency.
David is also one of the several former members of the People’s Revolutionary Government (PRG) and People’s Revolutionary Army (PRA) who fled Grenada in 1983 with the collapse of the revolution and returned in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and some Grenadians still fear him.
After the 1999 election in which the NDC won no seats, a group of original members left the party and a group of revolutionary returnees joined the party. David did so and won election in 2003.
In his initial meeting with the Ambassador, however, David said all the right things about wanting to work with the U.S.
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